Will Mancini

I have identified 12 kinds of churches in North America, in order to provide a practical look at the growth challenges of today. As an introduction to a series, I provide a peak at the list and a few opening thoughts. Each future post will walk through the three groupings; 4 kinds of growing churches, 4 kinds of plateaued churches and 4 kinds of declining churches.

OPENING THOUGHTS

#1 This is not a research project. George Barna, Ed Stetzer and others do a fine job at providing this information. The categories that follow were created from an intuitive synthesis as a result of personal engagements over the past 10 years with over 300 churches. The experiences range from one-day onsite deep dives with church staffs to one-year relationships of monthly onsite work. The only exception to my onsite work is the co::Lab coaching network which has enabled me to develop relationships and track strategically with scores of church planters and small churches in a virtual context.

#2  While the list may categorize most churches it is not designed to be comprehensive. As a blog post ,this list is a subjective, personal reflection. I do hope it provides insight for any pastor.

#3  My language is not creative to be novel, but to provoke thoughtfulness and to set-up application from the point of view of clarity and vision. As I train ministry leaders to create worlds with words, so I hope to open new perspectives with new language.

#4  The growth dynamics of any church body are related to size, life-stage and inherent characteristics stemming from denominational association. While some of these attributes are more prominent for a few of these categories, most of these designations transcend size, life stage and denomination.

4 KINDS OF GROWING CHURCHES

• Neo-transcendance attractionals: Big crowds are coming this Sunday.
• Micromentums: Lots of variety, seed vision and redemptive passion.
• Faithfully-focused: Faithful to the gospel, the saints & the surrounding community.
• New-world traditionals:  Historic patterns for a new generation.

4 KINDS OF PLATEAUED CHURCHES

• Mega-mores: We built it and they didn’t come.
• Over-competents: Smart leaders with all-things-to-all-people approaches.
• Succession stalls: Who’s our leader?
• Strategic multipliers: Great influence but its not in the numbers.

4 KINDS OF DECLINING CHURCHES

• Die-visions: More differences of opinion and less people.
• Havens of care: It’s all about us!
• Target transplants: Someone moved but our address is the same.
• Denominational allegiants: If 1950 rolls around again, we’ll be ready.

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This time of year, I enjoy reflecting and sharing the observations I gain from working with a diverse group of church leaders in North America. Here is my take on what to expect not only this year, but for years to come.

TREND #1: Expect Increasing Diversity of Opinion on What Good Vision and Strategy Look Like.

A year ago at New Year, you could digest Tony Morgan’s Stop Making Goals for the Future and scan Michael Hyatt’s leadership reflections on wanting to do more strategic planning. Both are excellent posts, but on the surface they contradict. This year Craig Groeschel posted on the Death of the 5 Year Plan, yet vision mavens like Jim Collins still talk about 20-year BHAGs (Big Hairy Audacious Goals). What’s the right perspective? To add to the confusion, the list of “how-to-do-church” books grows exponentially. We’ve gone from simple, deep, organic and total to sticky, viral, dangerous and hybrid. Are we getting clear yet? Well, I almost hate starting a trend list with this bummer observation, but it’s very important to acknowledge. If you want a good place to start, read Clarity 101.

TREND #2: Articulating the Biggest Picture will be the Leader’s Greatest Asset Like Never Before

If trend #1 isn’t bad enough, every church leader  is saturated with countless best practices, bombarded with more communication (and more conduits of it) and ministering to people struggling with increased life complexity. It all boils down to a hyper-need for clarity. Communicating Jesus-centered meaning in life has never had more competition. The best leaders won’t  fool around for one second without showing and telling what their church is ultimately supposed to be doing. They won’t take the most basic assumptions for granted.

Over Christmas break, I met with senior pastor Doug Sager of First Baptist Concord, a large Southern Baptist church in Knoxville. I love a comment he made: “When you know the why, you can live with any how.“ That’s the spirit that effective leaders must continue in order to keep people connected to the big picture. The phrase echoes the central theme of a popular business book on clarity this year, Start with Why, by Simon Sinek. His bold assertion is that leaders traffic in what they do and how they do it, but most can’t articulate why. His blog is a good resource.

TREND #3: The Digital World and Social Media will Open New Possibilities for More Churches

Unfortunately most churches lag behind the “real world” by 10 years or so when it comes to technology and communication. But online giants like LifeChurch.tv not only lead the way with technology, but do so generously by bringing sites and apps to the world like VideoTeaching.com and YouVersion.com. The bottom line is a new world of possibilities for vision and strategy not just for large churches but for every spiritual leader with an innovative spirit. Church online, facebook and twitter are just the beginning and just the tip of the iceburg! A few folks to follow to learn more about this world are Gordon Marcy, a long-time media maven in the Christian space, John Saddington who recently left North Point Church as their tech guru to blog full time, Charles Lee who champions ideation, networking and social entrepreneurship using technology, and Terry Storch, the technology pastor at LifeChurch.tv.

TREND #4: Visioning and Spiritual Formation as Disciplines will Merge More Visibly

True visioning in the local church should always be a Spirit-led, Word-anchored exercise of daily spiritual formation. One consultant, George Bullard, years ago coined the phrase, “The Spiritual Strategic Journey” which I have always loved. But it is easy to separate the strategic and the spiritual in daily practice. Every year, more  Auxano clients express direct appreciation for the fact that our consultants (we call ourselves navigators) are pastors first, with a theological training and a Godward impulse. In the future there will be little tolerance for strategic conversations and visioning exercises that aren’t first God-worshipping and God-listening initiatives. Church leaders are tired of anything in the name of vision that smacks of corporate ideology.

TREND #5: Small Will Continue to Be the New Big

Beyond Seth Godin’s book title from 2006, thinking, acting and leading small will continue to mark the church landscape. What are a few mile markers along the way? First is the new normal of multi-site churches. Leadership Network played a key role in accelerating this innovation which helps larger churches expand through smaller beachheads. Read their 2010 LN_multi-site_report.

Second, as church planting and missional thinking continue to expand, smaller expressions, from house churches, to missional communities become more legit against the traditional, monolithic measurement of big-church-butts-in-seats. This year the Exponential Conference, a gathering dedicated to church planting, will be larger than ever. We have recently witnessed the birth of a new network to small-town, small church America called The Sticks. Last year even brought counter-intuitive book titles and blog posts like The Strategically Small Church and The Micro Manifesto.

TREND #6: Networks are Becoming the New Denominations

The rise of church planting networks not only validate the entrepreneurial spirit but enable new groupings of ” the small” from the prior trend to exert more influence. As the new learning, new strategies and new relationship cluster in these front line networks, the knowledge, encouragement and accountability of traditional denominations bring less value. It’s no surprise to most readers that the time and resources from most denominations are woefully tied up with ineffective congregations.

What are some of these growing networks? Here are few: Acts 29, Redeemer City to City, New Thing, ARC, ChurchPlanters.com, PLNTD, Vision360 and the  ICF Movement. Of course there are countless more and new ones popping up all the time. Two that just started are the Houston Church Planters Network and the Launch Network in Atlanta. Please note that these networks are not trying to be new denominations, but their momentum is changing the game. Also note that some effective networks like Stadia and the Church Multiplication Network are denominationally based.

TREND #7: Leaders will Pay More Attention to Shorter Time Horizons

Everything in the vision and clarity space pushes to shorter horizons as the pace of change accelerates. A mantra that Reggie McNeal coined is “Preparation over planning.” The emphasis on leadership is preparing for the uncertainties of the future, rather than trying to predict them. As a result, answering the question, “Where is God taking us?” requires a 90-day focus and a 1-year horizon of shared storytelling like never before. Will other time horizons be important? Yes they will, but not like the way we used to think about it. Read this post on the Five Horizons of Leadership to glean more.

Take note that this year, 2020 is exactly 10 years away. For better or worse (and I suspect mainly for worse) we will see a new glut of 2020 vision reports. While the use of 20/20 for its opportunistic pun has been used widely for 10 years, it will legitimately fuel some new dreams for many leaders.

TREND #8: The Intersection of Personal and Organizational Vision will be Magnified. This trend is the earliest in its emergence and perhaps it’s too early to note. It has been on my radar for ten years, as each year I work in the arena of organizational clarity, I get more and more requests from individuals. I have noticed that the greatest barrier to organizational clarity can be the clarity of individuals who lead them.

Peter Drucker was an early thought leader in recognizing that the movement from an industrial to an information paradigm would push the envelope on personal clarity and self-management for business and non-profit leaders. Strengths Finder is one of four books that has been on Amazon’s top 100 for over a thousand days.  Yet I find very little evidence in the ministry world that a hunger for personal clarity is making an organizational difference. I have had ongoing conversations about how to address this and envision playing a role in this field in the next decade. For now I keep looking for the overlap and  I would love to know your thoughts. If you are interested in learning more on the personal side,  two of my favorite vision initiatives in the individual space are Craig Groeschel’s book and companion website Chazown and Ben Arment’s Dream Year.

TREND #9: Visioning will be Interpreted More as Making Meaning than Predicting Future

Life brings a daily tidal wave of monotony. We all fight to keep our daily routine vital and life-giving in view of greater purposes. A key attribute of vision is and always will be, how it keeps people focused on the future. But one aspect of vision that will bring increasing value is how it refocuses our work today. This is why I like the word “clarity” as a practical substitute for “vision,” especially in church. Expect that people will not care about where you church is going until you can make meaning for them right now. Why am I in worship? Why should I participate in a small group? Why should I give to your church? Clarity today before you envision tomorrow.

TREND #10: External Focus and Biblical Justice will Stay Prominent

The most notable pastors in the American megachurch have all championed causes of justice in the last 5 years, from Rick Warren’s P.E.A.C.E. plan to Bill Hybel’s global adventures. In Evangelicalism we have seen the pendulum swing back toward biblical justice since the 1920’s when movements with social values rejected a high view of God’s Word. Now that biblical justice is mainstream it will stay a prominent feature in our vision and strategy work.

Strengthening this trend will be a generation of Millennials who will rise in organizational leadership. They mark an era of altruism where volunteerism and social entrepreneurship are the standard not the exception. Generationally speaking, they care more about people “outside of the organization” than the boomers did. The mantra we will continue to see, sparked by Eric Swanson, is “Don’t be the best church in the community, be the best church for the community. Or as Tim Keller has articulated, “We aren’t trying to have a great church, but a great city.”

TREND #11: Consulting for Vision Clarity will Surpass that for Capital Campaigns

This trend may sound small, but consider for a moment that for almost four decades, capital campaign consulting has been the dominant category for “strategic outsiders” in local churches. But all of the traditional companies have been in decline including, RSI and Injoy, both of which have changed ownership in recent years. How is the role of the consultant shifting? It’s moving away  from packaged campaigns and programs towards the ability to navigate organic and culture-savvy solutions. In fact, help in clarifying vision has become the most common reason for a pastor to pursue a consultant. This statistic comes from a 2010 Future Trends report completed by Tom Harper with the Society of Church Consulting. It revealed that motivation for seeking consulting was twice as high for discerning a new vision (49%) than any other category, including constructing new space (22%). Download the report: FT_Executive_Summary.

As a the need for vision coaching increases, Auxano will be adding two world-class players to the team in 2010: Bill Donahue, a leadership guru formally with Willowcreek and the Willow Creek Association and Simple Church co-author, Eric Geiger, who will serve in addition to his executive pastor responsibilities at Christ Fellowship in Miami.

If you do want help with a capital campaign or other strategies for creating a culture of generosity, I highly recommend the folks at Generis. Their mission is to accelerate generosity toward God-inspired vision.

I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS ON THESE TRENDS OR OTHERS YOU ARE OBSERVING.

Church planters stand in a unique intersection that brings five overlapping points of tension when it comes to vision and ministry DNA.  I see these five tug-of-war ropes with every planter I meet. Each of these tensions starts with a defining question.

#1 Am I running from or photocopying the ministry DNA of where I am leaving?

The first tension is between the ministry the church planter is leaving and the church they’re starting. There is a love-hate spectrum on the “leaving” side. Planters can err defining themselves by what they’re not (hate) or by simply photocopying the launching church model (love). I see both all of the time. In our ongoing Houston co::Lab, one planter left Sojourn Church in Louisville, KY excited to plant a church just like it in Pearland, TX. He is using the co::Lab to make sure he doesn’t short-circuit his own discovery and discernment process.

#2 Will I build the church that’s in my head only, or the one that God will begin to grow?

The second tension is between the ministry DNA that’s in the church planters mind and the one that God actually begins to grow.  Defining values from the start should be a powerful magnet and filter for the core team, but this shouldn’t preclude God’s sovereign hand of provision and direction as the church takes-off. The balance here is important as I always encourage aggressive discernment and bold articulation from the start. The key is to pay attention and always ask the most fundamental question: “What is God up to?”

#3 Will my definition of success be limited by the metrics of yesterday?

The third tension is between the metrics of yesteryear and the new metrics that missional thinking and innovative ministry may birth. Planters need freedom and confidence to break from the past and the lingering expectations from peers and mentors. I am surprised by how many times a guy starts out thinking creatively only to fall into common patterns and butts-in-seats goals.

#4 Will I leverage the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lay a vision foundation?

Fourth, is the tension of the “get-r-done” factor and a sweat-saturated task list with the importance of taking time to think clearly about the church’s cultural foundation. You only pour the foundational concrete once. I encourage planters to fiercely protect the “important and non-urgent” task of articulating vision well. The Auxano Vision co::Lab is a great place for coaching and accountability for this work. Remember, you only have the lifetime of the opportunity to seize the opportunity of a lifetime.

#5 Will I choose to translate the DNA well to the core team or rely on my own talent?

Finally, planters wrestle with knowing intuitively what they’re about and creating contagious carriers of the church’s vision. Helping people tell the new story is not as automatic as we would like to think, even with the core team. Years into his ministry, Jesus was still clarifying the basics of his mission with his twelve. In Luke 9:55, he rebukes them once again for wanting to destroy and not save. If our perfect God-man-leader, Jesus, worked hard for vision clarity what makes you think it won’t take a lot of time and attention for you?

If you have recently planted or are in the process of planting, I highly recommend the Exponential Conference this April in Orlando. They will have a track for vision, values & culture, apart of which will be a pre-conference. Let me know if you plan to be there.

I’m on the family drive from Houston Knoxville for Christmas, reviewing your favorite posts in the last 12 months. Romy and I are sitting in the back seat with Jacob and Joel at the helm.  This is Jacob’s first year to pull a leg on our annual road trip which creates a very interesting mobile office experience.

I hope you enjoy this review!

#7  10 Distinctives of Culture-shaping  vs. Church-building Leadership

#6  Church Jobs of the Future

#5  The Christian Blogger’s Dilemma and What to Do About It

#4  Introducing Open Source Vision Casting

#3  Vision Casting for Children’s Ministry: 7 Golden Principles

#2  Ten Power Principles on Church Strategy

#1  Guests at Church: 10 Mind Blowing Facts to Fuel Your Hospitality Ministry

One year ago, I blogged a 7 part series that I thought was worth revisiting on the application of Seth Godin’s book, Tribes, to church leadership. Because I picked up the pace of writing since that time, many have started following my blog after this series was posted. The six ingredients of a redemptive tribe are passion, leadership, movement, communication, focus, and greatness. 

Post #1: Take Seth Godin to Church: Here I introduce the series, challenging readers on how they apply the information they read from books. I set up the driving question of the series: Are you managing a program factory or are you leading a redemptive tribe? 

Post #2: How Passionate is Your Tribe – 5 Team Questions: In this post I talk about the first ingredient of a redemptive tribe: Passion. I include some practical team questions. Every leader in your church can be placed on a continuum of emotional ownership. How do you increase their passion? 

Post #3: Pastors are Tribal Leaders – 4 Things We Must Do: This post brings the second ingredient, leadership, to the forefront with four imperatives for every local church pastor. I pull my favorite quotes from Godin and spend more time on the fourth “must do:” Committing before its successful. 

Post #4: Limit Your Limitations: The third ingredient of a redemptive tribe is movement. Here are some incredible questions to think through as a team about your story, your communication, and your unintended barriers to doing more as a church.

Post #5: The Essential Lesson of Tribal Communication: The fourth ingredient of communication brings us to a one primary application. What is the most principle for us to apply?

Post #6: Stop Trying to Reach Most People: This provocative little post had the highest hits in the series last year. I think you will enjoy the counter-intuitive principle here on tribal focus, the fifth ingredient.

Post #7: Your Church Was Made to Be Remarkable: The final post discusses greatness as the sixth ingredient of a redemptive tribe. Jesus is the most remarkable human to walk the planet. The gospel is the most remarkable message ever communicated. Now look at four quotes from the book through the lens of being a remarkable church.

I hope you enjoy this series and use it with your team. If you benefited from the extended series, please let me know.